Saddle Up, Lock and Load

In case you've missed it (somehow), North Korea has been ratcheting up their war rhetoric of late. Of course, any actual tactical strike made by Mr. Kim Jong-Un is likely to elicit an extreme response from the US and South Korea. North Korea is far outgunned, because at this point, it's unlikely that they have a capable nuclear arsenal, much less the ability to actually put nuclear warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles. However, let's assume, at least for the moment, that North Korea is serious in its bellicosity and actually intends to strike at South Korea or Japan (because the US is probably unreachable). What should the international community (re: the US) do?

One obvious answer is, of course, retaliate. Why shouldn't we retaliate, the hawks would say. It's a good question, but there is also a good answer. It isn't the North Korean people who threaten the world with annihilation, it is its untested and frightened leader. Kim Jong-Un stepped into the leadership position not a military man, but a son of a respected leader (in NK) who has a history of enjoying western culture.

When looking at North Korea, one must also look at the military: the military rules, above all else. North Korea has the largest standing army on Earth, mostly due to the fact that its government spouts anti-west and anti-South Korean propaganda. The top generals also wouldn't want a respected leader replaced by someone who has no prior military experience and who has, at least rhetorically, stated that peaceful negotiations are possible. What better way to perpetuate military dominance than to remove the man who threatens their purpose?

Thus, this is likely Jong-Un's proving ground: seeing how far he can push the rest of the world before the clock stops on his decision to push the button or not push the button. Of course, there is always a point of no return for this sort of thing, and it was nearly crossed in the Cuban Missile Crisis; for Jong-Un, that point may be when he recognizes that the NK military generals want to proceed with military action, and he doesn't want to. That would almost certainly lead to the beginning of hostilities, or a coup.

So, let's assume that Jong-Un does decide to strike a target, without being too specific about its location. What does the US do? The US has a military umbrella protecting South Korea and Japan, two of North Korea's assumed targets, leaving it responsible to come to the aid of either country in case of attack. Should it retaliate immediately, however?

In my opinion, no. Even if the US military strikes can be carried out only on government targets, the US should not attack. Why, you ask?

First, let me state that I am not ubiquitously anti-war; if a nation is attacked, obviously they have the right to retaliate, but just because one has the right to retaliate, that does not mean that it should be the first option. Consider the military strength of the US: it is the most technologically advanced military in the world with the highest number of nuclear weapons, fighter jets, etc. etc. etc. Razing a country like North Korea would only be problematic, especially with China right nearby (though that is another story).

The US should, instead, give North Korea, and specifically, Kim Jong-Un, options: First, give him the option of ceding power and dissolving the government (obviously won't happen); Second, give him the option of fleeing North Korea (problematic, but Kim is facing a lot of backlash from the established military leaders, though it still likely won't happen); Third, in conjunction with both China and South Korea, open the borders and allow NK citizens to become refugees (definitely won't happen); Fourth, disarm completely, dissolve the government, place the military under South Korean command, and surrender to a coalition force (definitely won't happen); Fifth, give him the option of disarming and opening the economy AND government.

President Obama has avoided making any aggressive remarks against North Korea, and for that, he is smart. He knows the situation of the country all too well, and is much less likely to engage in any kind of strike, preemptive or otherwise, than his predecessor was. I'm hoping that he can carry this rumination with him should there be some sort of outbreak; otherwise, several million people may die in the process.

Any war instigated by NK would have to be an absolute war, i.e. an all-or-nothing game. Giving Kim the option of an escape from (basically guaranteed) annihilation will likely work, but of course, that doesn't say anything about his generals.

The situation, in itself, is complex, with so many different angles (I avoided talking about China completely, though it fulfills the strange love triangle between them, NK, and the US; the issue of famine in North Korea is also salient, along with the younger population, many of whom are less likely to believe the government propaganda, etc.) that it's hard to see viable options. I'm just hoping that the first option isn't the last one for the people of North Korea.

That's all for now, 
Das Flüg

National Security from College Students

This past Halloween weekend, the Rutgers Association of International Relations traveled to Bethesda, Maryland in order to participate in the National Collegiate Security Conference, and let me tell you, it was awesome.
Firstly, I was in the Eighth Iranian Majlis (Parliament), a very fractured and uncertain governing body. We had to discuss the burgeoning youth movement in Iran, whose goals were to become a more democratic countries. There were two polarized sides, the Reformists and the Principlists; their names essentially state their position. Before we even got around to passing resolutions on the issue, the Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated. A report first issued by the Revolutionary Guard implicated noted reformist Ayatollah Rafsanjani of being complicit in the Supreme Leader's assassination. After calling for several investigations, I received intelligence from a rogue Revolutionary Guard soldier stating that President Ahmedinejad and the leaders of the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) met to plan the death of the Supreme Leader. From then on, we moved to impeach President Ahmedinejad, who promptly decided, along with the IRGC, to dissolve the Majlis and attempt to kill all of us.
In the end, we went to war with China and stole their flag.

Aside from the serious stuff, it was one hell of a time. If you're not doing Model UN, then you're not experiencing absolute euphoria. Get there.

That's all for now,
Das Flüg

110 days of summer (or so)

Oh, summer. What a lazy, enjoyable time. I suppose that it's about time that I started paying attention to politics again since I don't want to let my mind languish and puppies.






In all seriousness, tensions between North and South Korea have never been this high since the end of the Korean War. The South has just cut off all trade with the North, which is approximately one-third of all of its trade. The North's largest trading partner is China, and the United States is looking to China to support trade sanctions against the North, effectively backing the North into a corner. These actions are being taken because a recent investigation showed that a North Korean torpedo sank a South Korean ship in late March. Some believe that a war is likely, though this is improbable; the United States has approximately 29,000 troops along the North-South border, and if the South is attacked by the North, the United States has long held the South's defense as an obligation. Essentially, a war would be suicide for the North.
So, what will happen? No one knows. Don't listen to any pundits, because they don't know any more than any other random person does. North Korea has always been a mystery since they sequestered themselves all those years ago, and their motives are not always clear. We will just have to wait and see, though what is likely to happen if China approves of sanctions is (if Kim Jong Il is rational) that North Korea will bargain and/or negotiate with the greater world. If not, well...it doesn't look good.

Aside from the serious matters, my movie pick of the week is Black Dynamite. It is a parody of the blaxploitation films of the 1970s and is a very well done parody. You should realize that the entire film is a satire and that none of it should be taken very seriously. Actually, don't take it seriously at all.


That's all for now,
Das Flüg