Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Why Facebook is the Stupidest Investment You Could Make (Right Now)

Facebook, the ubiquitous social network, star of the movie "The Social Network," and black hole on which people spend way too much time (including myself), became a publicly-traded company this past week. Yes, that's right kids, your parents can own a small percentage of that webpage where you stash all your raunchy photos and stalk your ex-girlfriends (or boyfriends, not discriminating) from afar. Unfortunately for Mr. Mark Zuckerberg and his book of faces, the stock price hasn't risen since a slight increase on day 1 of public trading.

If it wasn't obvious to everyone else but me, Facebook is not a company that is geared to make money. It is a company that relies mainly on advertising for revenue; aside from that, it has no product to sell and no outlooks as to other products it might release. Zucks recently stated that the company could come out with their own phone, though because the smartphone market is so saturated and dominated by a few major companies (Apple, Google, etc.), the prospects for a Facebook phone raising their dwindling stock price (now at $31; highest level: $40) are about as good as world peace befalling Earth tomorrow. Ain't gonna happen, sadly.

Facebook, fortunately, has the capacity to be an advertising giant; as of right now, an estimated 800,000,000 people have accounts (including myself, sadly). That being said, one still has to gauge the effectiveness of the advertisements on the target audience; I'll use myself as an example. On Facebook, I set my birthday as 7 December, 1941 (Pearl Harbour strike, for those of you who have never read a history book). So, looking at my ads right now, I have one asking me if I'd like to enter a nursing home and if I'm over 40 and single. Well, I may not be over 40, but I am single, so ladies, and this might be crazy, but I'm single, so call me maybe.

If Facebook hopes to succeed as a publicly-traded company, they need to take the Google approach and diversify. Google started out as a simple search engine and has grown to become one of the leading technology companies in the world. They only hire the best and brightest, which has helped to accelerate their company growth. As of right now, Facebook is just a social network, and one that I'll hopefully leave after this game of Words With Friends.

If Facebook's stock drops too low, then expect something crazy or bold to happen. Hitting the half-price mark from where it started only conveys that the company was a red herring and is worth about as much as a single internet server. At that point, Zucky will have to make some tough decisions about his company's future. Can they compete against Google? Can a single social network really become a marketable company? Will Mark Zuckerberg ever find true love?

I honestly expect, somewhere down the line, that Google will buy out Facebook for controlling share of the company. It might end up being the only option for the Zuckmeister as investors realise just how worthless his big internet billboard is. If you want good investments, look into small companies that just started, read their portfolios, and see if they actually have marketable worth.

I know this was a little different from my usual spiel, but I love railing against Facebook.

That's all for now,
Das Flüg

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